by Walter Football
We are partnering with Walter Football this season who puts out insightful football analysis and wanted to show how these insights can be applied to winning theSCOREX:NFL FREE contest for $5k or your own league that you set up with your friends or coworkers.
Here are Walt’s Buys and Sells (from Walter’s Overrated/Underrated)
Note: the dollar change is from Week 8 to Week 9.
Atlanta Falcons ($18.28 +$0.53)
If the Falcons weren’t overrated before their victory at Washington, they sure are now. Atlanta was able to crush the Redskins, as Washington put forth an F-minus effort in that game.
The Falcons are not a good team. Their defense is atrocious in every facet, and I still don’t trust the running game. The pass protection won’t be as great every week either, thanks to injuries to the blocking unit.
Cincinnati Bengals ($16.78 -$0.88)
The Bengals are 5-3 right now, but they’ve gotten very lucky in two recent victories. They were trailing the Dolphins by 17 points, but they were able to win because Miami had two turnovers that were returned for touchdowns. And this past week, the Bengals intercepted Jameis Winston four times. If Ryan Fitzpatrick had five more minutes, he may have won that game.
Cincinnati’s offense hasn’t been the same since losing Tyler Eifert to a season-ending injury, while the defense is dealing with multiple significant injuries to the defense. The top two linebackers are out, while stud defensive end Carl Lawson was just lost for the year. Now, A.J. Green has been lost for the year as well!
Los Angeles Rams ($28.60 -$0.25)
The Rams looked unstoppable against the Vikings on an early Thursday night. When that happened, I wrote, “Be wary of teams that appear that way on national TV. They can often disappoint afterward because they’re way overvalued. Remember the Eagles from numerous years ago with their controversial quarterback when they couldn’t be stopped against the Redskins? That’s what the Rams’ win over Minnesota felt like.”
As it turns out, the Rams haven’t covered the spread since beating Minnesota, save for their Week 7 victory over C.J. Boat Hard, or whatever his name is. They’ve beaten eight teams that are a combined 26-39-2. Because looking at numbers is lazy, let’s analyze the wins:
– Rams beat the Raiders after trailing at halftime. Oakland’s only win thus far came via horrible officiating versus a rookie quarterback making his first start.
– Rams shut out the Cardinals, who were nearly blanked at home the week before versus the Redskins.
– Rams beat the Chargers by 12. The same Chargers who nearly lost to C.J. Beathard.
– Rams defeated the Vikings by seven. Minnesota tied the Packers and a hobbled Aaron Rodgers and then was blown out by Buffalo. Plus, some poor officiating buried the Vikings.
– Rams snuck out a win against a pedestrian Seattle team, as Los Angeles couldn’t stop the run.
– Rams beat the Broncos by three, although they were up by more before some garbage scores. Case Keenum was horrible until the Rams went into a prevent, and Denver stinks overall.
– Rams crushed C.J. Boat Hat, or whatever his name is.
– Rams barely beat the Packers, who led for most of the game. Had Ty Montgomery not fumbled the kickoff at the end, Aaron Rodgers probably would’ve led Green Bay to victory.
I understand that the Rams seem unstoppable to some – they were favored in New Orleans, for crying out loud – but that’s precisely what makes them overrated.
Three media panelists were asked who would win the NFC North, and they said the Vikings without giving it a second thought. There was no consideration to the Bears, who lead the division, or the Packers, who would hold the tie-breaker with a win in Minnesota.
The Vikings struggle in many areas. They have trouble covering downfield against receivers that Xavier Rhodes isn’t blanketing. They can’t cover the middle of the field because their linebackers struggle against the pass. They can’t block because their offensive line sucks. Mike Hughes is out for the year, while Andrew Sendejo is dealing with an injury. The Vikings’ previous three wins have come against the dreadful Cardinals, the struggling Jets and the pedestrian Lions, who just traded one of their top offensive weapons.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($21.83 +$0.67)
The Steelers are back to overrated territory after winning in Cincinnati and subsequently beating Cleveland and Baltimore. Pittsburgh needed a blown non-call on an offensive pass interference to win the former game; not to mention several drops by the Bengals in the opening half. Despite those drops, the Bengals still had a 21-20 lead with a minute remaining. Meanwhile, the Steelers avenged their earlier loss to the Ravens because Baltimore was so banged up.
The reason Pittsburgh is overrated is because its defense isn’t very good. The team has major problems at linebacker and in the secondary. Recall that a few weeks ago, the Steelers couldn’t stop Joe Flacco from moving up and down the field against them in Pittsburgh. Before that, Ryan Fitzpatrick shredded them in the second half. Things have not been fixed; rather, the Steelers got lucky recently.
The Chargers only lost to the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers only lost to the Chiefs and Rams. Hey, the Chargers only lost to the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers only lost to the Chiefs and Rams. Have you paid attention? The Chargers only lost to the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers only lost to the Chiefs and Rams. Hey, guess what? The Chargers only lost to the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers only lost to the Chiefs and Rams. Have you heard the news? The Chargers only lost to the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers only lost to the Chiefs and Rams. Did you hear? The Chargers only lost to the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers only lost to the Chiefs and Rams. You’ll never guess who only lost to the Rams and Chiefs: The Chargers only lost to the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers only lost to the Chiefs and Rams. Rams Chiefs. Chiefs Rams. Rams Chiefs. Chiefs Rams. Rams Rams Rams. Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs. Rams Chiefs Rams Chiefs Rams Chiefs Rams. Chiefs Rams Chiefs Rams Chiefs Rams Chiefs. Rams Rams. Chiefs Chiefs.
Sorry, I thought I was a member of the national media for a second. Yes. The Chargers only lost to the Rams and Chiefs. This is true. So what? They got blown out in both games. They barely beat C.J. Beathard at home. Their other five wins are against the Bills, who suck; the Raiders, who suck; the Browns, who saw Baker Mayfield get hurt in the first quarter; the Titans, who shot themselves in the foot repeatedly; and the Seahawks, who are mediocre at best. None of those teams have winning records.
The Chargers can’t defend the middle of the field, and their pass rush isn’t very good. I don’t trust their offensive line either, and they have a shaky coaching staff and kicking game. They have reached obscene levels of overrated, and I can’t wait to keep making money betting against them.
Baltimore Ravens ($16.29 -$1.11)
The Ravens just lost by double digits to the Panthers and then suffered a defeat to the Steelers, but they’ve been very banged up. In the Pittsburgh game, the Ravens were down two starting offensive linemen, while some defensive players were banged up.
Baltimore has dropped to 4-5, but the team is going on a bye at the right time. The Ravens will have a chance to heal up, so if everyone is healthy in Week 11 and beyond, Baltimore could have a very strong finish to the year.
Green Bay Packers ($17.59 -$0.01)
The Packers are much better than their 3-4-1 record indicates. They were 3-2-1 off their bye, but have suffered a pair of brutal losses. Had it not been for Ty Montgomery’s lost fumble on the kickoff return, Green Bay may have beaten the Rams. Meanwhile, the Packers were tied at 17 with the Patriots in the fourth quarter, with possession. But thanks to an Aaron Jones fumble, injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Blake Martinez, and an ejection for Jermaine Whitehead, the Patriots were able to outscore Green Bay, 14-0, in the final frame.
I expect the Packers to finish the year well. Aaron Rodgers is getting healthier, while the defense has been better since getting some cornerbacks back from injury.
The Titans got some flak for losing to the Bills, and they got even more flak for the 21-0 home loss to the Ravens in which Marcus Mariota was sacked 11 times. That’s all everyone discussed on TV last week when talking about Tennessee. Eleven sacks.
To no surprise, the Titans performed much better in London. They outplayed the Chargers, but killed themselves with errors. They then rebounded by beating Dallas by two touchdowns on Monday night. The Titans, who could easily be 6-2 right now, will continue to be underrated because people won’t forget the 11-sack loss.